As of March 7th, 2005, Osama bin Laden is dead

This bet has the interesting property of being potentially decided long before the two year minimum time period. It could be this month (March 02003). Of course if Bin Laden is captured and doesn't die in custody before March 02005, the Prediction fails.

Just to split hairs, the prediction also has some ambiguity. Does this mean that as of that date we also know definitively the answer? It might take until 2006 to know he's been dead for over a year, maybe w/ a corpse to date, maybe not. It's not like there's "proof of death" where you take the newspaper from that day and put it on his corpse to show that he was dead that day (which of course proves nothing). It would prove that he was still dead, though. :)

This difficulty ("is he dead?") is discussed briefly in the Prototype Bets section. The most recent rationalization I have read of why there have been no new videotapes is that he fears that those who seek him will be able to deduce his whereabouts by analysing the air quality. Sulfur and brimstone, perhaps.

The preponderance of the facts favors a prediction of Osama bin Laden's death by 2005:

- bin Laden is well-known to suffer from kidney failure, and having to travel - no, run - in the hinterlands of Southwest Asia is probably playing hell with his dialysis schedule, so an early death from toxemia is a real possibility;

- Assuming that the murdering scum was in Tora Bora for the battle there, he could have been ventilated either by shrapnel or stray bullets;

- As bin Laden's circle of friends diminishes in number and loyalty, it's more and more likely that one of his lieutenants will (or possibly has already) "score an own goal" and kill him and his son in order to become the new leader of al-Qaeda. This is more likely if bin Laden is severely infirm either from kidney failure or wounds.

He has survided 108 air raids on his country! He still has a majority of support from people in afganistan! If he is to die it will be of natural causes.

Only dead narcissists are silent.

I expect Thomas meant "by March 7th..." or "no later than March 7th...", but his prediction "as of March 7th..." commonly means true on March 7th and later, but not true on March 6th or earlier. Not a particularly wise or interesting prediction. I'm happy to challenge this prediction. - Peter Norton

The phrasing of the prediction reflects an effort to use an appropriate tense for an event that might have already come to pass. My expectation was that it would be interpreted in the sense of an "as-of" date for financial reporting. That a reporting organization has an asset on its books as-of December 31st does not imply that it did not have the asset prior to December 31st.

Given the experience with Elvis Presley sightings mentioned in the prototype bet section, it seems reasonable to phrase the prediction so that a subsequent revision to Osama's status would not affect a prior ajudication of a wager.

The phrasing, "X will have happened as of date Y" commonly means the condition X will be true on date Y, but might have become true at any time prior to date Y. It's a more specific tense than simply "as of" in the sense of "As of today, X is true."

As I understand it, Osama was spotted in the mountains and the US called in virtually every bomb available to destroy the mountain.

If Osama's body was blown into millions of pieces 18 months ago then it will be virtually impossible to find any evidence of him anywhere.

If that is true then we will never know with 100% certainty whether he is alive or not. Therefore, this debate probably will never be resolved.

In my Prototype Bet post of 18 July 02002, I suggest the publishing of a "bona fide videotape" as an ajudicable event.

Dead or alive, I can guarantee he smells.

Looks like the odds on this one have significantly lengthened due to the videotape of 10 Sept 2003. Indeed, since the reasons for this prediction revolve entirely around why Bin Laden hasn't shown his face since Dec 01, is the challenge even valid anymore?

Not every viewer of the videotape draws the conclusion that bin Laden is still alive. Christopher Hitchens writes in the Septermber 13th, 2003 issue of The Mirror: "I have believed for more than a year that Osama bin Laden is dead and yesterday's pathetic home movie from al Jazeera via al Qaeda (or do I mean the other way around?) has reinforced this conviction.

It would be easy enough for his fellow-gangsters to prove me wrong. All they need to do, next time they point a video at their heroic guru, is to put in his hands a recent edition of an Arabic or Pakistani or Afghan newspaper. The date needn't be visible - the headline would do.

Or, if they don't have any cameramen who can also read, they could induce the Great One to say a few words about recent developments in, say, Iraq.

Until two years ago, you could hardly shut Osama bin Laden up. He had a great fondness for the sermon, the proclamation, the taped fatwah. And all of these, like the captured video from Kabul showing his gloating over the World Trade Center, were extremely easy to authenticate. Indeed, they were too genuine for my taste. How likely is it that such a loquacious character would manage to sit out the whole Iraq war without feeling any need to orate?"

[Pending the start of Long Server, the Google cache of his whole column may be found through http://snurl.com/2ceh.]

I agree with the substance of Mr. Hitchens' analysis. This videotape does not appear to be much more probative than the evidence offered for the existence of Bigfoot.

I agree with Thomas Holaday and Christopher Hitchens.

It would have been child's play for Osama bin Laden (and Saddam Hussein) to make a stack of video and audio tapes for broadcast in anticipation of his death later.

Al-Jazeera has also shown itself to be a hardly-objective observer of the whole war on terrorism scene (although Bill Moyers and the BBC are still nosing them out in that regard). Since Al-Jazeera are collectively the Arab staff of the former BBC Middle East news bureau, they certainly possess the needed technology and expertise to fake the tapes themselves. And they're motivated.

By the way, am I the only person here to be intensely gratified that Christopher Hitchens has moved away from the Dark Side? :-)

March 7th, 2005 has already passed and the U.S. government continues to assert that they believe OBL to be alive. This would seem to be at least arguable evidence that the prediction has been proven false. Is this predictor still willing to elevate their belief to an actual bet? Is this permissible under the rules of Long Bets to make a bet AFTER the date of determination has passed?

You are proving that no one has the evidence that he is alive. I ask, do you have th evidence that he is dead????

This statement you have made is amazingly unlikely, for several reasons
1.If Osama Bin Laden really is dead then wouldn't the rest of his terrorist organisation eventually die as well.
2.If he is dead then who is commanding his terrorists.
3. And if he did die and somebody took his place, then why haven't they came foward yet.
So as you can see it is clear that Osama Bin Laden is not dead, well yet anyway.

If he has died, and it didn't make the international news, he is a less significant person than we think. That seems unlikely. He's probably still alive.

If he is still alive, there are only a few things that explain that in a logical way. It's either:

1) because the U.S. and its few remaining allies are incapable of finding him,

2) the U.S. and its few remaining allies don't want to find him, or

3) the U.S. and its few remaining allies want him alive.

I have to conclude that people who believe he's either secretly dead or in secret custody are up against that wall we all face sooner or later: is our government just incompetent, or is it something a little more serious than that.

The wall isn't about having the answer to that question. The wall is about having to even ask it. It's not a fun place to be.

The reasons for me to believe that he is dead are:
1. He is not a scary goat to sit in a lonely cave and wait this long to hit back at US or other countries. He definitely would have tried more attacks on various countries, if he is still alive..
2. Recent Benazir Bhutto's interview on MSNBC clearly picks up the point where she mentions that Omar Sheikh has killed OBL.
3. India has always been telling US that they have gathered intelligence reports on ISI capturing and killing OBL (although there is no proof to it, Indian intelligence can definitely be relied upon)
4. There is no word (either in video or audio format) from OBL or his aides lately.
5. The sole beneficiary from creating all this hype is Mr.George W Bush (since most of the people in the world today believe that this is true)

It is entirely possible that Osama Bin Laden agreed to become "the threat" to western civilisation, so that the Patriot bill and war on Iraq were justified. Zeitgeist (http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com Part II) suggests that 9/11 was an inside job and therefore I believe that Osama was nothing more than a willing figurehead.

The faked videos of (an alleged) Osama confirming that he organised and carried out 9/11 probably should have been by the legitimate Osama, but due to his ill health, he was unable to complete his confession so a stand-in was used.

It is entirely possible that he was dead before 2005.

I therefore agree with the predictor.

In March of this year, two tapes were broadcast with a voice claiming to be Bin Laden. Analysis of the recordings indicates that Bin Laden was the speaker, although I don't know if this analysis is definitive. One of the tapes refers to the Danish cartoons of Mohammad that were first published in late 2005. The other tape apparently refers to the Annapolis conference of November 2007. This seems to be pretty strong evidence that OBL lives yet.

Big bombs Tora Bora he's dead alright. I'm gonna stop now before the secret service come and get me.

It doesn't matter if he's dead. Al Queda has become an organization of fractionated segments, like the Boy Scouts: There's a headquarters somewhere, maybe in Kansas, but the packs are autonomous and will do what they see fit. Osama is a but figurehead now.

I'd like to add that I hope the prediction is correct, that O's a mere stain on a rock in Tora Bora.

yeah but yo all is wrong 2008 and the vidios keep coming>>>

I agree with Phil Busby that 9/11 was a false flag operation conducted by the US government to free up the funds and create an atmosphere of public opinion to allow a new age of imperial mobilization. In fact if 9/11 was a "real" terrorist attack it would be the exception to the historical precedent.

The Germans printed warnings in American newspapers not to board the Lusitania and sail to Europe but somehow hundreds of pounds of ammunition were on board when it sunk full of passengers in the early 1900s. People say Truman enticed the Japanese to attack Pearl Harbor. The Gulf of Tonkin has been a known lie for many years and on and on......

The Bin Laden 9/11 confession tape is considered a forgery by many familiar with the 9/11 truth movement. In fact Bin Laden released tapes prior to the confession tape where he claims he didn't do it.

I doubt we will ever find him because then the "war on terror" could have a foreseeable end. It is to the benefit of the small group of people in power to still have him out there. That way we can continue to invade countries that sponsor terrorism, have links to Al Qaeda and launch an ongoing series of protracted conflicts in multiple theaters of operation across the globe to support US interests also known as "fighting terrorism".

The late director Aarron Russo became very good friends with Nicholas Rockefeller in the late 90s. Rockefeller actually predicted many of the major foreign policy events that have occurred in the last decade including 9/11, the war on terror and not finding Bin Laden.

Osama is under US govt. custody and under our protection. if he ever gets away the truth of what really happened on 9-11 will be out and the us does not want that to happen.....