Bet 751

Duration 8 years (02018-02026)

“The annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be 2 percent or above.”

PREDICTOR
Robert D Atkinson

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Atkinson's Argument

U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the "low hanging fruit has been picked." Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the "s-curve" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)

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