Bet 681

Duration 6 years (02015-02020)

“In the time from now until Dec. 31st 2020, Apple Inc. will not start to manufacture or sell cars (self driving or not) nor will they supply components - hardware or software - to car manufacturers.”

PREDICTOR
Joerg W Schwieder

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Schwieder's Argument

Currently speculation is running high, that Apple is developing a self driving car or trying to become an automotive supplier to get their systems into vehicles, be it as a UI component or platform or means of selling Apps.

This is not going to happen for two reasons: 1. Apple has never been a supplier. They simply don't supply components to other companies, they sell to end users. Being a supplier - especially in a safety critical world like the automotive one - requires a specifically set up organization, including certifications, procedures etc. that is simply not compatible with the way Apple operates and which Apple's success is rooted in. 2. Developing, manufacturing and selling cars also requires a different organization from Apple's that is able to handle dramatically different product life cycles. This, too, goes against the way Apple is currently managing their business which is around shares, centralized competency teams. This would no longer be possible with a product line being so different and would also make Apple a dramatically different company.

Since Apple's success since the beginning of the century has been rooted in the way they operate and are organized I believe it's unthinkable for them to deviate from it just to diversify into a completely different yet highly competitive product area.

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