Bet 588

Duration 9 years (02010-02019)

“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020”

PREDICTOR
Liu Liu

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Liu's Argument

  1. China's work force will decrease after 2010. and before 2020, most of Chinese born in baby-booming (1960s) will be retired and the pressure on national retirement fund and health fund will dramatically increased. The outsourcing industry will quickly transfer to other countries such as India and Vietnam which has more future work force;

  2. The corruption will likely result more unevenly distribution of wealth, thus, making small business owners in China face more regulations and taxes. Startups founded after 2010 can hardly gain any traction and effectively eliminate the possibly of enjoying another economic growth on innovations;

  3. The economy drawback will likely harm the life quality of middle class in China. The social contract that established between the middle class and the current regime after 1989 will be broken, a political reform will be an attractive option to middle class.

    Based on the above 3 observations, the current regime (China Communist Party) will likely be toppled in the next decade.

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